Monday, October 21, 2013

Business As Usual?

There I was, out of the stock market against advice, waiting for Tea Party House Republicans to pull the trigger on the debt ceiling and get serious about deficits and the debt.

What  happened? Capitulation; the worst bit of negotiating ever seen.

First they write a bill to restore the pay of federal workers after just two days of shutdown.

Then they change their demands multiple times; defund Obamacare, repeal medical device tax, make congress participate, etc.

Then they fail to highlight the President's unilateral changes to Obamacare as a legitimate reason to defund or delay or reopen the law; if the executive can do it, why can't they?

  • Delayed employer mandate
  • Delayed out-of-pocket caps
  • Rescinded congressional participation mandate
  • Rescinded requirement for congressional employees to pay for their own Obamacare premiums
  • Income verification requirement dropped
    • Income verification for Obamacare subsidies is a stumbling block for the insurance exchanges (top left below) since the Hub software is reportedly the part that has been failing and liberals want no barrier to giving away taxpayer earnings (is the Hub software failing on purpose?). At least this was brought back as part of the deal.


Finally and inexplicably, Boehner caves and allows a floor vote instead of calling the President's bluff.

The good news is that the software (maybe) has kept enrollment for the first two weeks to about 70,000 nationwide, well short of the 30,000,000 goal.

The other good news is that when the Hub software is made to work (by competent software engineers), it can serve as the vehicle for Welfare and Medicaid reform by automating the work of millions of bureaucrats and eliminating the horrendous 263% overhead.

I'm not opposed to Obamacare per se'. I'm opposed to the projected $150 billion annual cost (all borrowed) to taxpayers. I am equally opposed to the fact that it does nothing to control actual health care costs. I am also opposed to some of its provisions since they put taxpayer's wallets at risk.

Given the 270 million insured people and the $2.7 trillion yearly cost of health care, we're talking $10,000 each. This means taxpayers will pick up half the cost to insure all enrollees (30 million people times $5,000 average subsidy equals $150 billion).

I think this is why establishment Republicans were siding with Democrats; not because they want government expansion but because their big-business constituents want taxpayers to pay for employee health insurance instead of them; a $2,000 fine, er, tax is cheaper than a $10,000 premium. Smaller businesses will be screwed since they can't afford to bribe, er, lobby capitol hill; I suspect that's why they're not hiring.

The Tea Party Republicans should have fought the cost, not the law. If they ever get elected again, they can repeal the law the same way we got it; by party line vote.

They should have forced a choice in spending priorities by demanding $150 billion/year in spending cuts to offset the impact of the law (prior to repealing it). They also needed to address the rest of the $800 billion annual deficit not covered by the sequester (Part II coming up in January).

What is a Trillion?
My friend Jack asked me to include a thought experiment of what a trillion is.

A penny is 1.55 millimeters thick. A trillion of them would make a stack 1.55 billion meters tall. The stack would weigh 2,750 tons.

A distance of 1.55 billion meters is 962,000 miles; roughly to and from the moon 4 times.

A dollar bill is  2.61 inches wide by 6.14 inches long, and the thickness is 0.0043 inches

It would take nearly two Stockholm Globes to hold a trillion of them.

It's a pretty big number!

Our debt is 17 times bigger.

Liberals like to compare the debt to GDP because they view ALL of our money as theirs; why stop at a paltry 40%?


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