So, what are the degrees awarded these days?
At first blush, you'd think there'd be more new businesses with all those business degrees; nearly 30% of the 1.3 million total for 2009-2010.
Distribution-wise, this doesn't seem too different from my college years except for the increase in business degrees at the expense of liberal arts (including math, chemistry and physics). Interestingly, computers and education are in decline.
Are there too many graduates?
Maybe but I don't think so; we're nearing the 30% level for college and 90% for High School. In 1979 (when I got my degree) it was more like 18% and 65% (darker curves). The growth in educated labor is about 50% over 35 years if we exclude the late bloomers (lighter curves). In that same time, GDP has more than tripled and population is up 50%.
The economy back in 1979 was quite horrible (interest rates near 20%, unemployment at 6% heading to 10%) but the US still made stuff; now we mostly service stuff made elsewhere.
A college degree means overhead to employers; they expect big returns on their hiring investment. Even the government, the least efficient thing on earth, only employs 14% of the workforce; real businesses typically have 4.5% overhead.
In a recent NY Times editorial, the author writes;
"The general message from these leaders is this: More young people would be hired if they had the right qualifications, but too few have the skills and discipline needed to succeed in today’s demanding workplace.
Over the last few years, I’ve interviewed more than 200 young people from diverse backgrounds of income, education, race and geography. About half told me that they had liberal arts degrees, and I was struck by how many of them regretted majoring in a discipline now seen as impractical.
Many liberal-arts graduates say they are eager to find an employer willing to train them in skills that don’t require a degree in engineering or computer science. But their pleas appear unlikely to be answered. Most corporate training today is directed at employees who arrive with technical skills already developed — if not through their college degrees, then though specialized internships.
One problem is that young people are competing both with their peers and with experienced applicants willing to accept entry-level salaries.
Financially struggling boomers fill many of the jobs that young people once assumed would be theirs. And according to a recent poll, nearly half of workers 50 and older expect to retire later than they had previously thought."
Finally, the gains by conservatives in shrinking government have also contributed to a loss of potential for welfare state degrees like psychology, sociology and ethnic/gender/cultural studies. Degrees in history and philosophy usually lead to law school but I think we'd all agree that there are already too many lawyers.
He goes on to say “I’m not against a college education. I’m against debt,” he said. “That was the only four letter word in my family…”. Are the politicians out there listening?
Rowe doesn't say what jobs are out there but, with little study, I can see he may be right. According to this site there are or will be 5 million jobs for college grads with a median wage over $56,000, 3 million jobs for high school grads with a median wage between $34,000 and $56,000 and 18 million jobs for anyone else for median wages between $22,000 and $34,000. These are predictions from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for jobs over the next 8 years.
That's 26 million jobs over 8 years with 21 million for workers without degrees. As boomers retire and youngsters come into the workforce, we can expect the workforce to stay the same or shrink a little because there were more boomers than millennials but boomers find themselves unable to retire.
The net result is that if the prediction is correct, there are sufficient jobs for 100% employment of the entire workforce of 170 million. Unlikely but encouraging.
The objective should be to increase non-government-subsidized employment, not to provide a baseless wage increase or to admit millions of low-wage illegal immigrants.
For example, after we deport the 11 million illegal aliens, lots of jobs in the agriculture, restaurant and hotel businesses (among others) will also become available.
As another example, after we finally eliminate all government employee unions (with Wisconsin leading thee way), lots of the cost of government can be shaved by hiring individuals on an at-will basis with lower pay and ordinary benefits like high-deductible health plans, Social Security and Medicare. Those with no jobs will be happy for the opportunity and those who lose them will gain an appreciation that they may have lost along the way to the fiscal ruin of the municipalities they serve.
For a third; bring back apprenticeships. These should be in jobs that can't be exported; plumbing, electrical, HVAC, landscaping, engine mechanics, drivers and so on. These jobs should not have minimum wage restrictions since they also supply training at the employer's expense; taxpayers pay about $15,000/year to school kids (poorly).
Manufacturing jobs will continue to be outsourced to low wage, low regulation countries as the pols sign more trade agreements; keep your eyes on the Pacific rim as the current administration tries to export more jobs there. An exception can be found in Volkswagen who built a factory here to avoid the higher labor costs in Germany as well as transoceanic shipping.
Rowe is backing up his words with cash; the mikeroweWORKS Scholarship Fund. This fund is good for about $15,000 per scholarship; equivalent to 100% tuition at welding school. The goal is to get high school seniors ready to enter the workforce with the skills they need to land the jobs that are available in the U.S. — the key word being available.
The caveat is that applicants must sign this pledge:
1. I believe that I have won the greatest lottery of all time. I am alive. I walk the Earth. I live in America. Above all things, I am grateful.
2. I believe that I am entitled to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. Nothing more. I also understand that “happiness” and the “pursuit of happiness” are not the same thing.
3. I believe there is no such thing as a “bad job.” I believe that all jobs are opportunities, and it’s up to me to make the best of them.
4. I do not “follow my passion.” I bring it with me. I believe that any job can be done with passion and enthusiasm.
5. I deplore debt, and do all I can to avoid it. I would rather live in a tent and eat beans than borrow money to pay for a lifestyle I can’t afford.
6. I believe that my safety is my responsibility. I understand that being in “compliance” does not necessarily mean I’m out of danger.
7. I believe the best way to distinguish myself at work is to show up early, stay late, and cheerfully volunteer for every crappy task there is.
8. I believe the most annoying sounds in the world are whining and complaining. I will never make them. If I am unhappy in my work, I will either find a new job, or find a way to be happy.
9. I believe that my education is my responsibility, and absolutely critical to my success. I am resolved to learn as much as I can from whatever source is available to me. I will never stop learning, and understand that library cards are free.
10. I believe that I am a product of my choices – not my circumstances. I will never blame anyone for my shortcomings or the challenges I face. And I will never accept the credit for something I didn’t do.
11. I understand the world is not fair, and I’m OK with that. I do not resent the success of others.
12. I believe that all people are created equal. I also believe that all people make choices. Some choose to be lazy. Some choose to sleep in. I choose to work my butt off.
On my honor, I hereby affirm the above statements to be an accurate summation of my personal worldview. I promise to live by them.
Signed ____________________________________
Dated _____________________________________
I'm not big on pledges but this sounds good to me!
I didn't read the pledge. But it ought to be appended to the Pledge of Allegiance.
ReplyDeleteI don't know about where you live, but there are a goodly number of clean-cut, articulate young guys making 6 figures at my car dealership.
ReplyDelete